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Celebrity Dead Pool 2017 - "Surprise! You're Dead!"

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Now accepting entries for next year, if people want to start scoring points from 1/1. DM here or on Facebook. Next year will be running concurrently here and on a Facebook group I'll be creating, I'll post the link to it in next year's thread. You don't have to join, I'll try and keep both going, for one year at least. 

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Yep still time for a celebrity death or two before the year is out!  The Rick Parfitt/ George Michael double header last Christmas was as good as a celebrity death double whammy as there has ever been!

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40 minutes ago, Delboy1969 said:

Yep still time for a celebrity death or two before the year is out!  The Rick Parfitt/ George Michael double header last Christmas was as good as a celebrity death double whammy as there has ever been!

lol

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On 12/20/2017 at 6:50 AM, Lemonade said:

This group is secret, so it won't show up in anyone's newsfeed, and no-one will see you posting in it.  Will be using forum names as much as possible, not real names. You should be able to request to join, if not send me a message and I'll add you 

AM Deadpool - The Ronnie James Dio Memorial Trophy

Are you able to send me an invite to join? Link isn't working.

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4 hours ago, kirsten said:

Are you able to send me an invite to join? Link isn't working.

This is an issue. Because I made it a secret group it's invite only, so the link won't work unless you're in the group, and you can't find it by searching. The only way people can join it themselves is if I change it from a secret group to a closed group. Then people will be able to find the group and see who is in it, but not actually see any posts or anything. I might do that. It's not quite as hidden but it's still hidden enough. It's not like this thread isn't freely available. 

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Michael I of Romania died earlier this month... a whopping 8 points for me? Pity he couldn't have made it 'til  Christmas day.

Some exciting developments on my Daesh guys too, but I'm going to wait until the  31st (or maybe the 30th, while everyone's still sober). Partly to see if I can win it in dramatic fashion; partly because reports of these guys deaths can go back and forth (though, one guy I'm pretty sure is down according to Lemonade's standards, at least).

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Quick points update with 4 days of the year left to go:

Gord Downie

Age 53

No bonuses

9 points each for @colb and @Bigsby, 18 points for @kirsten who gets a joker bonus.

Tony Booth

Age 85

No bonuses

6 points plus 3 unique pick bonus points for @colb scores him 9 points.

Charles Manson

Age 83

No bonuses

6 points each for @NutleyMedicos, @Scubby, @ca_gere and @Delboy1969 and @Gypsum_Fantastic.

King Michael of Romania

Age 96

No bonuses

5 points each for @scottyboy and @colb

Leaderboard at 27/12/2017

  Player Points Number of predictions Average Age
1 Bigsby 61 7 75.1
2 Scubby 53 7 85.1
3 colb 41 5 75.0
4 Scottyboy 31 2 65.0
5 Delboy1969 23 4 87.3
6 Lemonade 23 3 77.3
7 ca_gere 19 3 83.0
8 kirsten 18 1 53.0
9 James Broonbreed 17 3 86.7
10 Improved Thinker 17 3 100.7
11 Stroopy121 16 3 87.3
12 Jim McGymersun 16 3 90.3
13 NutleyMedicos 12 2 86.0
14 Gypsum Fantastic 6 1 83.0
15 Lucius 6 1 88.0
16 Mattjimf 6 1 89.0

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On 12/24/2017 at 5:44 PM, scottyboy said:

Some exciting developments on my Daesh guys too, but I'm going to wait until the  31st (or maybe the 30th, while everyone's still sober). Partly to see if I can win it in dramatic fashion; partly because reports of these guys deaths can go back and forth (though, one guy I'm pretty sure is down according to Lemonade's standards, at least).

Oooofft. Early start here in Poland, thanks for asking. I think I'll just post this now: worried everyone's getting  hammered for new year already.....

 

All right, like I said: Lemonade’s chosen source of record, Wikipedia, now has biographies of dead people for 3 of my Daesh team members. And, no, I have not just created this situation right now to win (if that were possible, I’d wait until 23.59 GMT tomorrow to do it! Knowing a fair bit about how Wikipedia works, I know this tactic not to be possible in practice). Like I said a post or two above, I’d noted the updates previously, on separate occasions, for each separate article/person, but waited on it, in case it turned out to be a social media cyberwarefare-fest. Or something. This hasn’t been the case: they have stayed dead according to wiki, with no cyber-jihadists or whoever changing the articles.

Most ignominiously dead is Ayad al-Jumaili, because Daesh itself provided the most definitive confirmation that he’d been killed (from there, NBC, then Wiki). He was, however, the guy whose age was unknown. Lemonade has a new headache here: this guy is certainly, verifiably dead as any Dodo. But points band is unknown; I already said that taking a very conservative stance would result in minimal points difference. On the other hand: the possibility of someone dying at an unknown age I don’t think was covered in the stated rules either way. Lemonade puts the effort in to run the game, so I definitely respect his call, whichever way. An update to the rules, I think, could be made on the back of this guy’s case. Next year, we have a concurrent FB group; Bigsby might invite his friends; “friends” is what I’m getting at—probably the death pool equivalent of the Cobra Kai! We’ll need something like the Dungeons and Dragons rule book to cover everything and try and keep it a level field…

The other two guys are Khalimov and al-Shimali. Wiki currently has them as dead (and again not because I changed their articles to say such 2m ago; and assuming Bigsby or whoever didn’t change their articles after he read the above two paragraphs, to report them as alive and fighting fit…) They both fall (fell) into the 30s-40s bracket.

Assuming Wiki has it right, they were both killed in the same Russian airstrike. Probably showing off a vast bunker-buster bomb: people who follow news might recall that Trump’s forces destroyed a Taliban tunnel network (and killed dozens of fighters while at it) using a so-called “MOAB”— “Mother of All Bombs”—see what they did there? If one digs a bit, there are anecdotes (though some expert ones, included) that this was an attempt by Russia to remind people that they have everything the US has, and can/will do anything the US can.

The Russians are basically the source behind these claimed killings: if Russian military intelligence is being honest, I’d say it’s very reliable (Russia doesn't disagree  with NATO on issues like Daesh or Somali pirates, e.g., so why lie? On questions like blackmailing Trump or manipulating US elections… not so much). If one looks at where Wiki takes/took its info from: umpteen major media outlets repeated the claims with caveats like “Russia claims…” or “….reportedly...”. But if one is just concerned about what a wiki page says, provided people aren’t fighting over it day-by-day, week-by-week, would it matter? In the case of Khalimov, there is an analyst with a phd who describes him as dead with no ifs, buts or maybes, whose writing is referenced in the Wiki page. Not quite the same with al-Shimali, but same airstrike (claimed); and I think more important for Lemonade, same conclusion made by Wiki: dead.

I have a point in there that using Wikipedia as a go-to source, or definitely as an ultimate arbiter, is putting the cart before horse. But anyway, I’ll elaborate if anyone cares why.

Oh, by the way… (limited) reports of Daesh head honcho being captured or killed in the last few days. He’s on my team this year, will stay on it next year (assuming no dramatic confirmation in the next couple of days). What if he’s (although not exclusive to him, necessarily, ofc) confirmed dead in 2018, but that he actually died in Dec 2017 (say). How would points get awarded in that sort of situation?

 

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42 minutes ago, scottyboy said:

Oooofft. Early start here in Poland, thanks for asking. I think I'll just post this now: worried everyone's getting  hammered for new year already.....

 

All right, like I said: Lemonade’s chosen source of record, Wikipedia, now has biographies of dead people for 3 of my Daesh team members. And, no, I have not just created this situation right now to win (if that were possible, I’d wait until 23.59 GMT tomorrow to do it! Knowing a fair bit about how Wikipedia works, I know this tactic not to be possible in practice). Like I said a post or two above, I’d noted the updates previously, on separate occasions, for each separate article/person, but waited on it, in case it turned out to be a social media cyberwarefare-fest. Or something. This hasn’t been the case: they have stayed dead according to wiki, with no cyber-jihadists or whoever changing the articles.

Most ignominiously dead is Ayad al-Jumaili, because Daesh itself provided the most definitive confirmation that he’d been killed (from there, NBC, then Wiki). He was, however, the guy whose age was unknown. Lemonade has a new headache here: this guy is certainly, verifiably dead as any Dodo. But points band is unknown; I already said that taking a very conservative stance would result in minimal points difference. On the other hand: the possibility of someone dying at an unknown age I don’t think was covered in the stated rules either way. Lemonade puts the effort in to run the game, so I definitely respect his call, whichever way. An update to the rules, I think, could be made on the back of this guy’s case. Next year, we have a concurrent FB group; Bigsby might invite his friends; “friends” is what I’m getting at—probably the death pool equivalent of the Cobra Kai! We’ll need something like the Dungeons and Dragons rule book to cover everything and try and keep it a level field…

The other two guys are Khalimov and al-Shimali. Wiki currently has them as dead (and again not because I changed their articles to say such 2m ago; and assuming Bigsby or whoever didn’t change their articles after he read the above two paragraphs, to report them as alive and fighting fit…) They both fall (fell) into the 30s-40s bracket.

Assuming Wiki has it right, they were both killed in the same Russian airstrike. Probably showing off a vast bunker-buster bomb: people who follow news might recall that Trump’s forces destroyed a Taliban tunnel network (and killed dozens of fighters while at it) using a so-called “MOAB”— “Mother of All Bombs”—see what they did there? If one digs a bit, there are anecdotes (though some expert ones, included) that this was an attempt by Russia to remind people that they have everything the US has, and can/will do anything the US can.

The Russians are basically the source behind these claimed killings: if Russian military intelligence is being honest, I’d say it’s very reliable (Russia doesn't disagree  with NATO on issues like Daesh or Somali pirates, e.g., so why lie? On questions like blackmailing Trump or manipulating US elections… not so much). If one looks at where Wiki takes/took its info from: umpteen major media outlets repeated the claims with caveats like “Russia claims…” or “….reportedly...”. But if one is just concerned about what a wiki page says, provided people aren’t fighting over it day-by-day, week-by-week, would it matter? In the case of Khalimov, there is an analyst with a phd who describes him as dead with no ifs, buts or maybes, whose writing is referenced in the Wiki page. Not quite the same with al-Shimali, but same airstrike (claimed); and I think more important for Lemonade, same conclusion made by Wiki: dead.

I have a point in there that using Wikipedia as a go-to source, or definitely as an ultimate arbiter, is putting the cart before horse. But anyway, I’ll elaborate if anyone cares why.

Oh, by the way… (limited) reports of Daesh head honcho being captured or killed in the last few days. He’s on my team this year, will stay on it next year (assuming no dramatic confirmation in the next couple of days). What if he’s (although not exclusive to him, necessarily, ofc) confirmed dead in 2018, but that he actually died in Dec 2017 (say). How would points get awarded in that sort of situation?

 

Just had a look there, no issues with awarding points for Khalimov and al-Shimali, they're on there with DOB, date of death, cause of death, so I'll do updates to reflect this soon. The other guy I'll have to consider whether I can award points on and how much, given that there is no date of birth or exact date of death so there's a bit of conjecture. If you can find me his approximate age from a reputable news source I'll score it based on that. I will have to look at tightening up the rules around that for 2018. 

Re your head honcho, if he's in your 2018 team and he's found to have died in 2017, I'll allow you a free swap out in your 2018 team and award points for him in 2017, although there has to be a cut off for this - say 31st January the  2017 table is completely locked? 

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Got my team prepped for 2018, feeling good about challenging for the title.

Looking at a few other death list comps/sites there are some interesting twists on the rules. I particularly like:

"Conjoined twins shall be considered as one (1) pick for each twin."

There are also ones where they 'draft' celebs and you can do mid-season trades - that'd be pretty fun (although not suggesting it - too much admin)

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2 hours ago, ca_gere said:

Got my team prepped for 2018, feeling good about challenging for the title.

Looking at a few other death list comps/sites there are some interesting twists on the rules. I particularly like:

"Conjoined twins shall be considered as one (1) pick for each twin."

There are also ones where they 'draft' celebs and you can do mid-season trades - that'd be pretty fun (although not suggesting it - too much admin)

We did mid season trades one year and everyone complained :(

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