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EU Referendum Result

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I thought Remain was going to win by a significant margin. At least that was the impression I got from living in Scotland.

Then I moved to the South of England and became quite terrified by the sheer volume of LEAVE propaganda everywhere. Everyone's windows, cars, gardens are covered in it. I don't think I've seen any Remain stuff about down here. Surprisingly, this area still edged it for Remain. I guess perhaps the younger folks in the cities outnumbered the toffs down in the villages.

If not for Scotland, it would have been a landslide.

It's hard to process that seemingly the northern English working class have voted this in droves. This is going to ruin them.

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Granted my social graph swings to the left and I don't hang out with pensioners from provincial towns in England but I only came into contact with one Leave voter and his basis for voting so was 'I'm just not sure'.

never felt so adrift from the populace yet so proud of Scotland

 

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Half an hour after the result and Farage says that that 350 million isn't guaranteed to the NHS and that Leave shouldn't have said so...

 

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Got the news in pretty early over here in Poland; already spent my witty barbs on facebook. North/Midlands England (and... Wales!?) have just dug a much deeper pit of misery for themselves; pity they won't sleep in it themselves. Another independence referendum seems a cert now (I remember bitching in that megathread that having the first one before the EU referendum made no sense). I feel for London though (actually I've spent the day on fb inviting London to become an appendage of an independent Scotland, but srsly) - it has the most to lose, and the city (/phenomenal powerhouse) just can't continue to function the way it currently does, without the EU (as I see it).

So much will depend on the details of the negotiated exit, though: if the real "Norway Option" actually occurs, it might actually be fine, and worse for the leave voters (as they'd see it, sigh) than the status quo. Still in the single market, still paying the EU, still freedom of movement (and in the Schengen Zone, which is not even currently the case) and Farange and every other UK MEP out on his ear. ...Or it could be a total shitfest.

Corbyn looks in trouble too.

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4 hours ago, Teabags said:

2nd Indy Ref though, aye?

I genuinely still don't have faith that Scotland would vote to go independent, despite how much I want it to.

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I'm not trolling here but can someone explain to me why all the doom and gloom? Serious question.

In or out, I wasn't too fussed but all day I've seen people losing their shit because of this result but I doubt any of us will notice a difference in our lives.

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1 hour ago, kirsten said:

I genuinely still don't have faith that Scotland would vote to go independent, despite how much I want it to.

Purely speculative (i.e. unsubstantiated guesswork), but I reckon it'd be a Yes landslide if there was an Indyref#2 tomorrow, and the negotiation was to sack off the UK and stay in the EU. Anyone who was on the fence seemed to end up voting No. I just don't think there'd be any fencesitting anymore. Scotland has now faced a General Election and an EU Referendum where the country voted completely and entirely against what the outcomes were in both. The disparity between Scotland and England is too enormous for there to be any logic in staying IMO. Surely there'd be very few Scots now who can see any long-term benefit in not voting Tory and continuing to get a Tory government?

I'm basing that on very little though, other than blind hope that people in Scotland aren't stupid.

 

England is stupid. Don't be like England. Wrong time to move here. To fit in, I think I'm going to have to be a gullible racist toff.

 

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1 hour ago, Skacel said:

I'm not trolling here but can someone explain to me why all the doom and gloom? Serious question.

In or out, I wasn't too fussed but all day I've seen people losing their shit because of this result but I doubt any of us will notice a difference in our lives.

If you're white middle class, in a stable job etc you'll see very little change most likely in the coming years but for a lot of other people the uncertainty is going to be hard to deal with. Foreign nationals living in the UK, Brits living abroad, dual citizens, etc. Their status is up in the air for the time being.

The EU provides lots of funding in areas the british govt doesn't give a shit about - science, environment, farming etc. That'll all go

Fuck knows what'll happen to the fishing industry? - scottish fish and seafood will probably still get mostly shipped to spain/france but no doubt it'll take a hit in terms of tarriffs (which will no doubt take years to put in place but still)

A lot of what will happen depends on the agreement reached when we actually pull out. We may be bound by a lot of the same 'straight bananas' laws that caused Farage so much grief.

If we slide further down the prosperity ladder, foreign investment will decrease. Big banks and such will look at other options as their gateway to Europe. Right now the trend is US business investment growing in the UK, fuck knows if that will continue.

In more symbolic terms, our 'voice' on the world stage is greatly reduced. We'll be on our own in terms of brokering deals, reaching agreements with international organizations/governments.

One thought I just had - Eurostar will maybe struggle. It's one half Brussels - london business trips and one half disneyland tourists. It's not just MEPs who work in the EU, it's everyone from interpreters to assistants and fuck knows who else.

EU member states get preferential market access in a bunch of non-EU countries. Basically meaning we get first dibs and wholesale prices on a lot of stuff from e.g South Korea. We'll have to stand in line like everyone else now.

The EU is currently the UK's largest trading partner (i.e. we got a lot of shit from the EU and sell a lot of shit to it). That's partly because the UK is in the EU. No guarantee that'll be the case if we leave. i.e. germany and co might be all 'get to fuck'

but yeah, day to day you're probably not going to notice much. In 10-15 years time though, the country could be a very different place. Probs a war here or there and most definitely some kind of triple dib dab recession. 

One of the most worrying part for me is the indisputable fact that xenophobia played a large part in this result. I don't want to be part of a country who risks their economic future because they can't find a hairdresser that doesn't speak lithuanian.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Skacel said:

I'm not trolling here but can someone explain to me why all the doom and gloom? Serious question.

In or out, I wasn't too fussed but all day I've seen people losing their shit because of this result but I doubt any of us will notice a difference in our lives.

This is exactly how I feel too and I don't know why you would have to put the disclaimer about not trolling.  Also not everyone who voted to leave is a bigot and a racist as so many are wont to say.

The European countries sold about 800000 cars here in 2013 - that's a lot of cars - something to think about

Edited by MerryChristmas

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23 minutes ago, MerryChristmas said:

  Also not everyone who voted to leave is a bigot and a racist as so many are wont to say.

This is literally the only thing I've seen Leave voters say today. A strange reaction indeed.

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2 hours ago, ca_gere said:

If you're white middle class, in a stable job etc you'll see very little change most likely in the coming years but for a lot of other people the uncertainty is going to be hard to deal with. Foreign nationals living in the UK, Brits living abroad, dual citizens, etc. Their status is up in the air for the time being.

The EU provides lots of funding in areas the british govt doesn't give a shit about - science, environment, farming etc. That'll all go

Fuck knows what'll happen to the fishing industry? - scottish fish and seafood will probably still get mostly shipped to spain/france but no doubt it'll take a hit in terms of tarriffs (which will no doubt take years to put in place but still)

A lot of what will happen depends on the agreement reached when we actually pull out. We may be bound by a lot of the same 'straight bananas' laws that caused Farage so much grief.

If we slide further down the prosperity ladder, foreign investment will decrease. Big banks and such will look at other options as their gateway to Europe. Right now the trend is US business investment growing in the UK, fuck knows if that will continue.

In more symbolic terms, our 'voice' on the world stage is greatly reduced. We'll be on our own in terms of brokering deals, reaching agreements with international organizations/governments.

One thought I just had - Eurostar will maybe struggle. It's one half Brussels - london business trips and one half disneyland tourists. It's not just MEPs who work in the EU, it's everyone from interpreters to assistants and fuck knows who else.

EU member states get preferential market access in a bunch of non-EU countries. Basically meaning we get first dibs and wholesale prices on a lot of stuff from e.g South Korea. We'll have to stand in line like everyone else now.

The EU is currently the UK's largest trading partner (i.e. we got a lot of shit from the EU and sell a lot of shit to it). That's partly because the UK is in the EU. No guarantee that'll be the case if we leave. i.e. germany and co might be all 'get to fuck'

but yeah, day to day you're probably not going to notice much. In 10-15 years time though, the country could be a very different place. Probs a war here or there and most definitely some kind of triple dib dab recession. 

One of the most worrying part for me is the indisputable fact that xenophobia played a large part in this result. I don't want to be part of a country who risks their economic future because they can't find a hairdresser that doesn't speak lithuanian.

 

 

That's an excellent post. I'm absolutely gutted by the result. Wales and Cornwall have committed suicide, England has drifted even further to the right, old Irish issues resurface and Scotland has once again learnt that even a unanimous decision means fuck all if it doesn't agree with England's. There is very little that is "United" about this Kingdom. I've already heard a lot of my colleagues who were staunch "no" voters in 2014 say that they have reluctantly switched to "yes" as part of their original rationale was protecting EU status. What an absolute cauldron of shite this all is. Demonisation of the other is where fucking fascism begins. Britain is a fucking shambles. Fascists are applauding the result. Actual fascists. We have become an inspiration for fascists. Farage, Johnstone, Gove, all dancing with the BNP and Britain First. FUCK.

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17 hours ago, Skacel said:

I'm not trolling here but can someone explain to me why all the doom and gloom? Serious question.

In or out, I wasn't too fussed but all day I've seen people losing their shit because of this result but I doubt any of us will notice a difference in our lives.

 

Ca_gere touched on some of the vast scope. I think the central thing is that the EU (maybe depending on who is running the numbers) is the world's biggest economy, and is, as Ca_gere said, the UK's biggest trading partner. And there is unprecedented economic freedom for those within it, and tariffs and outright barriers for those without. So lower growth and/or recessions await. The UK has a large deficit, and it is able to borrow because it trades a lot; it won't be able to afford all this borrowing without all the $$$ it makes trading (again, with the EU being the biggest partner). Moody's has just downgraded the UK's credit rating as I'm typing this.

Loads of direct funding and subsidies from the EU to various sectors. Farming is the big one, as Ca_gere said (this is one thing I won't miss, amusingly; wonder how many farmers voted Leave, too). More exotically, I've seen an article or two wondering about HBO's reaction: GoT is partially filmed in N. Ireland, and apparently the whole film industry there takes funding from the EU. And so on.

London in particular is a global hub for all kinds of sectors, most notably finance (and then IT and all kinds of other industries and entrepreneurs on the back of that). So many (in particular, but hardly solely) multinational firms will move their HQs and regional hubs, because it just doesn't make sense to stay in a non-EU country when they can be an hour away and within the EU. On a more mundane level, just look at all the fucking coffee shops in London and how many Eastern Europeans staff them. Both the reactionaries whine "d-took-r-jobs" and the economists gloat that they out-competed locals who can't get up in the morning to do minimum wage work; but if you go up to, say, Glasgow, the pubs, hotels and coffee shops are largely staffed by locals. I can't see there being any other real reason than London needs a hell of a lot of people and can't find them locally. (Maybe they won't need to if the London gravy train goes down the toilet). Sure, current residents who came from the EU won't get booted out, but they will get older and move on; and they're not going to breed some kind of self-perpetuating low-wage barrista caste. (all of this is London-centric, but if the capital's economy is bombing, I can't see the hinterlands magically turning round, either).

From there, it depends on what sector one is looking at. Ca_gere mentioned fisheries. Fisherman were the one group (in Scotland) I unfailing saw pushing Leave when I was back in Scotland recently. It's just fucking sad, tbh. Their narrative is that the EU is restricting the amount they can catch in order to reserve it for fishers of other EU countries. And, surprise, they want to be like Norway, because Norway is again utopia. What no one ever seems to grasp is that Norway has run its fisheries into the ground at least a couple of times, and no one was allowed to catch anything until stocks recovered. That's what's behind the "sustainable management" of Norway fisheries - just by default, because there was nothing to catch. Even the restrictive EU fisheries policies haven't been sustainable - go read the science. If Scottish fisherman can still sell their catch (tariffs), if they get their way they'll likely still fish their way out of a job.

 

 

 

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The fishing industry one is a head scratcher - overfishing will kill it. That's just plain science. I admittedly know nothing about what fisherman think other than anecdotal evidence (having grown up around a lot of fish folk) but it seems that they don't care there will be no fish left to catch in however many years. Added to that is the fact, as you say, they won't get free reign of the seas anyway. They all trot down to Brussels to broker deals right now with EU countries. Do they think suddenly the British public will value langoustines and monkfish as much as the French? We just don't like fish as much as the rest of the world. Brexit isn't gonna change pallets.

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I was at the Highland Show for a couple of days this weekend and needless to say this subject was on everyone's lips. the really surprising thing for me was that the farmers I spoke to, as well as those selling farm machinery and supplies were overwhelmingly in favour of leaving. I was there on Friday on the last with a friend of mine and his dad and dad's mates. His dad is a farmer and I was quizzing him and others about why he thinks that the community were so anti-EU and his feeling was because of the amount of bureaucracy that the EU has created for farmers. He talked about his dad having 'a wee shelf of paperwork behind his chair' compared to him needing a whole office for the paperwork and reporting that farers need to do nowadays. That beef with the EU, however, assumes that in the 30-odd years that have elapsed between those two anecdotes, the British government themselves wouldn't have significantly tightened the regulations and required more paperwork and reporting, which has happened in most industries and businesses.

The areas of heavy EU subsidy and funding which voted leave are baffling too. It's not as though, for most of these places, the UK government were chomping at the bit to fund them but they got beaten to the punch by the EU! They'd have remained as under invested, under developed ghettoes if that money hadn't been made available.

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On 6/24/2016 at 8:31 PM, MerryChristmas said:

This is exactly how I feel too and I don't know why you would have to put the disclaimer about not trolling.  Also not everyone who voted to leave is a bigot and a racist as so many are wont to say.

The European countries sold about 800000 cars here in 2013 - that's a lot of cars - something to think about

Not all leave voters are racist, but all racists voted leave.

 

More generally - office chat today is refreshingly un-racist (other than the complaints that the Geneva Convention is bullshit and our soldiers should be allowed to kill the fuck out of baddies even if they surrender peacefully...) but one point that's been raised about IndyRef#2 is that, while there have been mutterings from Germany and France that they'd welcome Scotland into the EU, the suspicion is Spain won't and one Veto will block us. Anyone have an opinion on that one? Or any interesting articles to read on the subject from the first time around?

I think IndyRef#2 will be more successful because we can answer some of the questions Salmond fumbled over. Currency? Probably the Euro but the Pound is dogshit now anyway. EU? I imagine Sturgeon will have some long chats with all the Veto-holding countries and get answers from them (if she's nae fucking daft she will).

My NO voting friends from before did so on the basis that they think Scotland will be better as part of something larger and most seem to agree (aside from the odd fucking moron) that being part of the EU is a fuckload better than being part of the UK.

 

xx

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"Why didn't anyone tell us this would happen?!?!?"

"They did."

"That was the Leave campaign's scaremongering!"

"No. Those were economists."

"..."

"They specialise in the EU economy."

"We're fed up of experts."

"..."

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5 hours ago, Stroopy121 said:

one point that's been raised about IndyRef#2 is that, while there have been mutterings from Germany and France that they'd welcome Scotland into the EU, the suspicion is Spain won't and one Veto will block us. Anyone have an opinion on that one? Or any interesting articles to read on the subject from the first time around?

I wondered about this at the last referendum. Despite voting yes, I did worry about having to re-apply for EU membership because I figured Spain (and the rUK!) would veto it. I think it'd be harder for them to justify vetoing it now, though. If we'd have gone independent last time, I get the impression that Spain would have vetoed to prove a point to Catalonia, but this time, if we do vote yes, we do so because the UK has voted to go independent from the EU and we feel there is no choice. I wonder if that sort of double negative would prevent Spain from vetoing. Like, to them in 2014, Scotland becoming independent would have seemed unnecessary and dangerous, but now it is legitimised. 

I am not good at phrasing things.

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Right now I don't know who is worse, the "I'm not racist" leave voters or the Tory politicians that clearly couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. How the fuck is the no Leave plan??!?

You could say it was just a political power play by the right wing of the party and they never really thought that the Welsh and English would be bat shit crazy enough to want to leave the EU. Dark times, I've been in touch with my MP and the Irish consulate to try and figure out what happens to me as an EU citizen living in a soon to be (or maybe not?!) non-EU United Kingdom.

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2 hours ago, Richard Pictures said:

Dark times, I've been in touch with my MP and the Irish consulate to try and figure out what happens to me as an EU citizen living in a soon to be (or maybe not?!) non-EU United Kingdom.

I'd imagine you'll just have to fuck off back to where you came from, coz this is GREAT BRITAIN.

 

I'd also like to know this, as my partner is a foreigner from that EU.

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