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[Stichman]

Originally Posted by Neil

Eh? What I posted above is just some scientific evidence that the world is warming up. I don't think many people would dispute that (are you saying the world isn't warmer now than it was, say, 100 years ago?).

What people are disputing is whether this warming up is caused by human activity or is just the result of some naturally occurring long-term cycle. The latest IPCC report concludes that people are at least partially contributing to climate change - hence why I'm throwing it into this discussion.

The two I picked out prove that Carbon Dioxide and Methane are increasing, not that they are causing Global Warming.

[Jim Stax]

Interesting documentary on a while back about this subject and how there is no hard proof 'we' are causing any more damage or change than has gone before. I for one believe that we are probably speeding up a natural process and in a manner that may not allow the earth to recover, whilst we are on it. We pop our clogs as a species, earth has a rest and then starts all over again. Ask the sharks and crocodiles.

The interesting point that 'was' raised in said documentray was in reference to the scare mongering and the resulting effect on society. Instead of encouraging us all to change our ways it does infact lead us/most to assume (even at a subconscious level) that any small effort is pointless so why bother. We give up hope of change and in so doing negate any good intention that lay behind the headlines in the first place.

[Chris]

If you're referring to the documentary on channel 4 called the great global warming swindle or something similar then the producer that has been very much dis-credted in the mainstream press and at least one of the scientists included in the program has said he was tricked into it and the views expressed were taken hugely out of context.

Move to block emissions 'swindle' DVD | Climate change | Guardian Unlimited Environment
Don't let truth stand in the way of a red-hot debunking of climate change | Climate change | Guardian Unlimited Environment
Climate scientist 'duped to deny global warming' | Climate change | Guardian Unlimited Environment
There is climate change censorship - and it's the deniers who dish it out | Climate change | Guardian Unlimited Environment
Why Channel 4 has got it wrong over climate change | Climate change | Guardian Unlimited Environment

[Neil]

Originally Posted by Stichman

The two I picked out prove that Carbon Dioxide and Methane are increasing, not that they are causing Global Warming.

Carbon Dioxide and Methane are both classed as Greenhouse Gases and the increase in their levels in the atmosphere is contributing to Global Warming because it is causing the planet to warm up. This is a scientific fact (or it was when they taught me in Geography at school). I assume you do not believe this to be the case?

[Jim Stax]

Originally Posted by Chris

If you're referring to the documentary on channel 4 called the great global warming swindle or something similar then the producer that has been very much dis-credted in the mainstream press and at least one of the scientists included in the program has said he was tricked into it and the views expressed were taken hugely out of context.

Move to block emissions 'swindle' DVD | Climate change | Guardian Unlimited Environment
Don't let truth stand in the way of a red-hot debunking of climate change | Climate change | Guardian Unlimited Environment
Climate scientist 'duped to deny global warming' | Climate change | Guardian Unlimited Environment
There is climate change censorship - and it's the deniers who dish it out | Climate change | Guardian Unlimited Environment
Why Channel 4 has got it wrong over climate change | Climate change | Guardian Unlimited Environment

Yeah I refer to that documentary. Not saying I believed a word of the science. The section about scare mongering whether intentional or not I'd say rings true...

[Stichman]

Originally Posted by Neil

Carbon Dioxide and Methane are both classed as Greenhouse Gases and the increase in their levels in the atmosphere is contributing to Global Warming because it is causing the planet to warm up. This is a scientific fact (or it was when they taught me in Geography at school). I assume you do not believe this to be the case?

Yeah I know that, but is there not something going round that graphs show Carbon Dioxide could be a result of Global Warming rather than a cause?
Don't get me wrong, I'm not a denying the possibility of Global Warming, I just don't think it's as clear cut or as life-threatning as people say it is - but hell, as I say, I'm no scientist.

[KimyReizeger]

Originally Posted by Stichman

I just don't think it's as clear cut or as life-threatning as people say it is.

Maybe, but believe it or not, it is hoped there will be human life beyond Stichman..

[Alkaline]

Originally Posted by Neil

If you believe that then I'd ask you to please consider the following scientific observations and conclusions:

- The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2005 (379 ppm) exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm).

- The amount of methane in the atmosphere in 2005 (1774 ppb) exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (320 to 790 ppb).

- The primary source of the increase in carbon dioxide is fossil fuel use, but land-use changes also make a contribution.

- Nitrous oxide concentrations have risen from a pre-industrial value of 270 ppb to a 2005 value of 319 ppb. More than a third of this rise is due to human activity, primarily agriculture.

- Eleven of the twelve years in the period (1995-2006) rank among the top 12 warmest years in the instrumental record (since 1850).

- Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1300 years.

- Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres.

- Losses from the land-based ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have very likely (>90%) contributed to sea level rise between 1993 and 2003.

- There has been an increase in hurricane intensity in the North Atlantic since the 1970s, and that increase correlates with increases in sea surface temperature.

- The observed increase in hurricane intensity is larger than climate models predict for the sea surface temperature changes we have experienced.

- It is more likely than not (>50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity.

- It is likely (>66%) that we will see increases in hurricane intensity during the 21st century.

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Personally, I do believe Mother Nature will eventually sort everything out and recover whatever happens, but at what cost? I suspect the cost will be a large number of human lives, if not the very existence of humanity itself.

There's no way of taking real readings from 150,000 years ago. Results could well have been distorted or coloured due to outside interference. Unless you had a time machine and could travel back in time and collect un-coloured samples there's no 'real' way to prove that those figures are credible (i do acknowledge that there's no real way to prove they aren't credible either).

We are also a lot more skilled at taking measurements now than in 1850 or 1900 and the equipment available now is a lot more accurate. Who's to say that whoever was taking readings up until a certain point hadn't made a right pigs ear of it? We even thought the Earth was flat at one point and that little spirits moved blood around in our bodies. Who's to say that these guys aren't wrong as well. All i ask is that people take a broad minded approach to scientific results and how to interpret them. We were always taught to take results from particular eras in science with a pinch of salt. You should do the same.

I'm not denying Global Warming or saying that Humans don't contribute to it at all, but there is a large amount of postulation and not a large amount of hard fact involved in global warming. Just because the Earth is a little bit warmer than it was in 1900 doesn't mean that the sky is going to fall and the End Of Days will be upon us.

I also love the use of the phrase 'very likely' in that spiel. Very scientific.

[Stichman]

Originally Posted by KimyReizeger

Maybe, but believe it or not, it is hoped there will be human life beyond Stichman..

Oh Kimy.

[Frosty Jack]

Originally Posted by Alkaline

I think the seasons are slowly going to flip and we will probably have the warmest parts of the year over the November/December period and the winter months over June/July.

Now I'm confused - could you explain how that is going to happen? I was under the impression that the timing of Summer and Winter was down to the relative position of the earth to the Sun. Is the planet going to turn upside down or something?

Originally Posted by Alkaline

The Earth has a good way of keeping itself balanced anyway.

Indeed it does. It kills off what is causing the problem...